Corporate Results Monitor - FNArena (2022)

FNArena's All-Year Round Australian Corporate Results Monitor.

Currently monitoring September 2022 - January 2023.

Figures shown as at 03 October 2022

FNArena subscribers receive the most current information. Please login with your account details.

TOTAL STOCKS:

14

Beats

6

In Line

6

Misses

2

Total Rating Upgrades:

2

Total Rating Downgrades:

2

Total target price movement in aggregate:

4.82%

Average individual target price change:

5.90%

Beat/Miss Ratio:

3.00

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Latest

CompanyResultUpgradesDowngradesBuy/
Hold/Sell
Prev TargetNew TargetBrokersCommentary
CMM - Capricorn MetalsBEAT101/0/03.603.301

Capricorn Metals' full year result has missed Macquarie's expectations by -7% at the net profit line, which the broker attributed to higher-than-expected finance costs, depreciation and amortisation and tax charges. Net debt and underlying earnings exceeded the broker's assumptions. Ahead of a resource update of Capricorn's Mt Gibson asset, Macquarie lifts its valuation by $60m given recent positive drill results. The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

CHN - Chalice MiningIN LINE001/0/07.257.501

Chalice Mining has released its full year result, and with a $129.6m cash position and free cash flow of $65.3m Macquarie finds the company well funded for exploration and pre-development activities for the year ahead. A recent seismic survey at Julimar has suggested mineralisation may be deeper than previously estimated, and deeper drilling is needed. The company expects to deliver a scoping study by the end of the year.

HAS - Hastings Technology MetalsIN LINE001/0/06.106.101

Macquarie makes only minor changes to its forecasts after reviewing FY22 results for Hastings Technology Metals. The company is undertaking an institutional placement and share purchase plan to raise $110m. The funds are necessary to enable the Yangibana project to commence production.

LTR - Liontown ResourcesIN LINE001/0/01.802.501

FY22 results for Liontown Resources are largely in line with Macquarie's forecasts. It's felt a cash balance of $453m is sufficient to progress the Kathleen Valley project. While the broker retains its $2.50 target price, a spot price scenario generates a $14.11/share valuation. It's noted 90% of the planned production from Stage 1 of Kathleen Valley is now under offtake agreements.

PMV - Premier InvestmentsBEAT013/3/025.6825.616

Premier Investments' result beat expectations and brokers are surprised by the strength of early FY23 sales, tracking at pre-covid levels. Despite lockdowns and difficult covid comparables in the previous year, the retailer delivered earnings growth in FY22. The company finished the year with excess cash, announcing both a special dividend and a buyback. Peter Alexander sales surprised to the upside and provided a contribution to a gross margin increase. Smiggle has performed well in the northern hemisphere back-to-school period. Citi pulls back to Hold on share price strength.

SIG - Sigma HealthcareMISS010/0/30.520.513

Sigma Healthcare's result disappointed brokers and has led to earnings forecasts being slashed, given no turnaround expected in the next eighteen months. The first half benefit of covid testing masked underlying challenges, suggests Morgan Stanley. The company remains focused on stabilising business and regaining customer trust over an eighteen month turnaround, following Enterprise Resource Planning implementation issues, but Citi finds near-term visibility limited. Credit Suisse downgrades to Sell.

SM1 - Synlait MilkIN LINE000/0/10.000.001

The FY22 result for Synlait Milk was largely as Macquarie expected, with the business broadly on track for recovery over FY23-24 as new customers ramp-up. While net debt was a key positive for the analyst, a more cautious approach by management to increasing volume resulted in a significant step down from prior long-term return on capital targets. Macquarie's Underperform rating is retained due to execution risks and the target falls to NZ$3.25 from NZ$3.30.

Previous Corporate Results Updates

CompanyResultUpgradesDowngradesBuy/
Hold/Sell
Prev TargetNew TargetBrokersCommentary
ART - AirtaskerIN LINE0 0 1/0/0 1.05 1.05 1

Commenting on FY22 results released by Airtasker on August 31, Morgans remains attracted to the strong growth pathway ahead, assuming execution by management. A key takeaway from results for the analyst was the Australian division becoming earnings positive. The company is targeting positive operating cash flow on a monthly basis by the end of FY23 via cost initiatives and a full year contribution from the OneFlare acquisition. The broker makes only minor changes to forecasts as most headline business metrics for FY22 were pre-released.

BKW - BrickworksBEAT0 0 3/1/0 24.74 26.17 4

Brickworks' result solidly beat forecasts, leading Morgans (Add) to note the opportunity for investors to buy the company's quality businesses well below replacement value. Property-related transactions were again a highlight, and the development pipeline remains key to income production moving forward. While Citi (Buy) sees the likelihood of Brickworks repeating its strong contribution from development profits as less likely, with the higher number of completions unlikely to reoccur near-term, the broker does see upside to near-term property earnings given strong rental growth. Macquarie (Hold) is less confident around the Building Products outlook.

CLV - CloverBEAT1 0 1/0/0 1.63 1.35 1

Clover's second half sales surprisingly beat the top end of guidance, driven by improved China infant formula market conditions and new customers, UBS notes. At its first half result, Clover had indicated solid early second half trading may have benefited from order pull-forward, though this does not appear to have been the case The broker sees two medium term opportunities -- new customers in China and new products and omega-3 expansion beyond infant formula. An increased cost of capital takes the broker's target down, but rating upgraded to Buy.

FSF - Fonterra Shareholders FundIN LINE0 0 0/1/0 0.00 0.00 1

Macquarie notes a solid FY22 result that was consistent with guidance by management of Fonterra Shareholders Fund. The FY22 final dividend of 20 cents representsa 59% payout. Management recently provided FY23 guidance for 45-60cps. Fonterra noted the sale process for Soprole is progressing though the Australian business will be retained, which the analyst estimates could lower capital returns from the $1bn previously expected. The broker's target is lowered to NZ$3.52 from NZ$3.62 after allowing for positive earnings revisions, which were offset by the adoption of a higher risk free rate assumption.

GL1 - Global Lithium ResourcesMISS0 0 1/0/0 3.00 3.00 1

A full year loss of -$4.3m from Global Lithium Resources was 11% larger than Macquarie had anticipated, largely given higher employee costs and office overheads. The company has recently announced a solid metallurgical test result from its Marble Bar lithium project, including a spodumene concentrate grade of 5.76%, which Macquarie finds encouraging. The broker sees movement in spodumene pricing as the most material risk to its outlook.

NHC - New HopeBEAT0 0 2/0/0 5.35 7.40 2

New Hope Corp's full year results were largely in line, with buoyant coal pricing supporting a material year-on-year financial and cash flow increase. The dividend was a source of the beat, with a 25c special on top of a 31c final, taking the payout ratio to above 45%. Credit Suisse had previously suggested a dividend payout ratio of 45% of earnings would serve as a possible catalyst for a re-rate, and the share price has done nothing but rally ever since. Thermal coal prices are expected to remain elevated for the time being, driving solid cash flows.

TUA - TuasBEAT0 0 1/0/0 1.65 1.85 1

Following FY22 results for Tuas, Morgan Stanley increases its FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts by 11% and 14%, respectively, on higher estimates for subscribers and margins. The broker now estimates growth plans can be self-funded (despite FY23 capex guidance exceeding forecasts), and free cash flow breakeven reached in FY24.

Total: 7

ASX50 TOTAL STOCKS:

In Line

N/A

Misses

N/A

Total Rating Upgrades:

N/A

Total Rating Downgrades:

N/A

Total target price movement in aggregate:

N/A

Average individual target price change:

0.00%

Beat/Miss Ratio:

N/A

ASX200 TOTAL STOCKS:

6

Beats

4

66.7%

In Line

2

33.3%

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Misses

Total Rating Upgrades:

1

Total Rating Downgrades:

1

Total target price movement in aggregate:

5.93%

Average individual target price change:

12.97%

Beat/Miss Ratio:

N/A

Yet to Report

Corporate Results Monitor - FNArena (1) Indicates that the company is also found on your portfolio

Tuesday

4 October

Wednesday

5 October

DEG

earnings result

Thursday

6 October

Friday

7 October

Monday

10 October

Tuesday

11 October
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Wednesday

12 October

BOQ

earnings result

Thursday

13 October

Friday

14 October

Monday

17 October

Tuesday

18 October

Wednesday

19 October

Thursday

20 October

Friday

21 October

Tuesday

25 October

EZ

Germany IFO investor sentiment, Oct

US

Conference Board consumer confidence, Oct

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Wednesday

26 October

NZ

business confidence, Oct

AU

CPI, Q3

US

new home sales, Sep

Thursday

27 October

CH

industrial profits, Sep

EZ

ECB policy meeting

US

GDP, Q3

ANZ

earnings result

CIA

earnings result

Friday

28 October

JP

BoJ policy meeting

JP

CPI, Oct

US

PCE inflation, Sep

US

UMich consumer sentiment, Oct (final)

MQG

earnings result

RMD

quarterly earnings

Listed Companies on the Calendar

Date Code
27/10/2022ANZearnings result
26/10/2022AUCPI, Q3
12/10/2022BOQearnings result
27/10/2022CHindustrial profits, Sep
27/10/2022CIAearnings result
05/10/2022DEGearnings result
25/10/2022EZGermany IFO investor sentiment, Oct
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Date Code
27/10/2022EZECB policy meeting
28/10/2022JPBoJ policy meeting
28/10/2022JPCPI, Oct
28/10/2022MQGearnings result
26/10/2022NZbusiness confidence, Oct
28/10/2022RMDquarterly earnings
24/10/2022UShousing market sentiment, Oct
Date Code
25/10/2022USConference Board consumer confidence, Oct
26/10/2022USnew home sales, Sep
27/10/2022USGDP, Q3
28/10/2022USPCE inflation, Sep
28/10/2022USUMich consumer sentiment, Oct (final)
24/10/2022XXglobal flash PMIs, Oct

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